Thursday, March 27, 2008

Killer Instinct

After watching Xavier blow an 18-point lead and all but hand the game to West Virginia on a silver platter tonight, I realized that this tournament has to be the signature year for the comeback. Xavier is one of five teams including W. Kentucky aginst Drake (16); Clemson against Villanova (18); Texas against Miami (16); and Georgetown against Davidson (17); where a team had a large double-digit lead at one point only to lift their foot off the heads of their respective snakes and allow the team to have a chance to tie at the end (Miami), force OT (W. Virginia, Drake), or actually win the game (Villanova, Davidson--both parlay killers for me).

What is going on?

I chalk this up to another aspect of careless play that I think marks this tournament more than any of recent memory. Too many offensive fouls, too many careless "me" shots, not enough teamwork and, for God's sake, no killer instinct. Two teams have crushed their opposition so far and, unfortunately, they are in the same side of the bracket. North Carolina and Kansas. Average margin of victory--30 (NC) and 22 (Kansas) and while the fodder of choice has not exactly been UCLA (actually, Washington State for the Tar Heels came the closest--and why are we splitting hairs when Davidson beat supposed power Georgetown??), they have done efficiently and professionally (whoops, should probably change that to "collegiately" or the NCAA may declare them ineligible due to their "pro" status) exactly what they should in each game. No messing around...no me first basketball...no flash and dash. Save that for the NBA boys when you declare after your freshman year, end up drafted in the second round and head straight for Europe because you really can't play in the NBA (I would argue that some of you can't play in the NCAA right now either).

North Carolina and Kansas are the class of the tournament so far. Teams like Stanford, Wisconsin, and Louisville have been workman-like in their efforts and, some could say, Louisville has been crushing their opposition as well but they did let Tennessee back in their game tonight after being up 18 at one point. They also did not show a penchant for blowing teams out during the regular season like the Tar Heels and Jayhawks. UCLA gets bored easily and let Western Kentucky back into this game tonight too easily. My original pick is a pretender who might be the most physically talented team but proved tonight that, much like Georgetown and Clemson before them, physical talent isn't enough if you don't play like a team and maintain a lead.

North Carolina, Kansas, Stanford, Wisconsin, Louisville.

In a tournament of 64 teams and the need to win 6 games against quality opposition to be champion, these five teams have the tools necessary to play, and win, consistently over a competitive timeframe.

And one of these five teams will win the whole thing.

Peace,
Reg

Monday, March 24, 2008

Easter Sunday

The most fascinating thing to me about the NCAA tournament to date, in this day and age of religious fanaticism and overreaching causes (I mean, come on, does a fish really need to have "rights"), is that no one raised a stink about playing on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

I'm the last one to take a stand either way since I believe a nation is best served by the separation of Church and sports (yes, I'm talking to you Cris Carter and Randall Cunningham). I just found it interesting that no one on the Catholic side of the ball (and Lord knows there were enough of them in the tournament this year besides just Notre Dame and Marquette) or anyone affiliated with these schools, spoke out about the tournament taking place at the tail end of Holy Week.

I realize the Archbishop of Rome has been pretty busy lately finding new sins with which to tax my Catholic guilt, including pollution (I know I'm a sinner but every morning when I start my car??) but he is missing the one event during Holy Week that combines a "who's who" of sins, including gambling, drinking, profanity and the offensive foul. That last one is the one that gets me the most. If you watched this weekend, you saw more charging fouls than a fraud conference put on by Captial One. These kids put their head down and their best street ball foot forward to recklessly drive for a "me" basket. What happened to an offensive scheme? What happened to a game plan? Davidson won that game against Georgetown because they were more in control. Memphis almost lost to Mississippi State for the same reasons. Yes, an offensive foul should be considered a sin--how do you commit a foul when trying to score? It's basically the equivalent of giving to charity using money robbed from an old lady.

But I digress.

Back to Easter weekend. Again, I'm not advocating that anyone should consider not playing the games on Easter. I just can't believe that some do-gooder blowhard didn't come up with the lame brain idea to protest this outside all of the arenas in force on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Is society actually taking a step towards being more civilized and worrying about things that really matter? But wait, there's the whole St. Patrick's Day fiasco that brings me back to earth. Local church officials declared St. Patrick's Day needed to be celebrated earlier in the weekend instead of the Monday of Holy Week. If St. Patrick's Day is that important for the local church to protest and that took place on the MONDAY of Holy Week, why isn't anyone taking a stand against the tournament?

Maybe it's because the Archbishop has Notre Dame and Marquette in the church office pool.

Peace,
Reg

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Doctor, Doctor

The following is the transcript from an actual session between a doctor and patient about a month ago.

Doctor: Do you realize how long we have been in session now?

Patient: This session or overall?

Doctor: Overall.

Patient: Ten months.

Doctor: Do you realize we haven't made any progress yet?

Patient is silently staring off in the distance.

Doctor: Doesn't that bother you? Why are you being so stubborn?

Patient: You don't understand.

Doctor: What's not to understand? You lost...fair and square.

Patient: It's not that easy.

Doctor: But it is...the fact that you can't come to grips with it is why you are STILL here.

Patient: What do you care? I'm paying you good money.

Doctor: It's not about the money any longer...I'm getting seriously worried about you. Do you realize that when you came in the office today, you had four basketball magazines with you and were trying to read all four at the same time? When I said "Good Morning," you broke into what I can only assume was an impersonation of Dick Vitale, expounding the virtues of some team named....

Patient: Drake.

Doctor: Yes, Drake. And when I asked you what you were doing, you started mumbling something about an acronym...

Patient: RPI

Doctor: I'm not even going to begin to try and understand what that stands for.

Patient: Honestly, I don't even know what it stands for...but I do know it is used to--

Doctor (interrupting): STOP! ENOUGH! Seriously, how did you get to this point?

Patient: I don't know...these last ten months are a blur. I can't even tell you what we discussed at the last session.

Doctor: I can. You told me you grounded your dog because he was watching too much ESPN. You forbid your daughter from using the computer to check basketball scores. She cried. A lot. She's SIX MONTHS OLD!

Patient: Why are you yelling at me?

Doctor: Does any of this seem normal to you?

Patient: Ok, maybe grounding the dog for six months was a little rash. He probably only deserved three.

Doctor: We need to get to the bottom of this. My wife is expecting me home early tonight.

Patient: Oh God! I all of a sudden feel nauseous.

Doctor: Nauseous? Why?

Patient: It must have been something you said...

Doctor: Huh? All I said is that my wife...

Patient: Ugghhhh! My head...

Doctor: What does this have to do with my wife?

Patient (grabbing his head with both hands): Stop saying that word!

Doctor: Which one?

Patient: W I F E (grabs his head and screams in agony again).

Doctor: Wow, it works when you spell it too. Now we're getting somewhere.

Patient: What does it mean? How can you figure it out from that.

Doctor: You're not the only one this has ever happened to...do you run an NCAA pool?

Patient: Ummm, I think so. Like I said it's all a blur.

Doctor: Are you married?

Patient: Well, there is a female in my house with my dog and daughter. But we haven't really spoken in ten months.

Doctor: Does she follow basketball?

Patient: I dunno...like I said, we haven't talked in ten months.

Doctor: She beat you in the pool, didn't she?

Patient (getting agitated): Huh? Yes, I mean no, no way...that's impossible. She doesn't even follow basketball.

Doctor: But I though you just said...

Patient (grabs a pillow and squeezes it, voice rising): She doesn't pay attention! She doesn't watch the games, she just sits there and watches American Idol and then she picks all these games correctly!

Doctor: Calm down--

Patient: Calm down? You don't know what it's like! Three years in a row...THREE YEARS! Last year, I had it wrapped up and then a team that never should have won late in the tournament wins a game they had no business winning and she does this stupid little dance all across the living room floor. She knows nothing about basketball!

Doctor: Maybe you should copy her picks this year.

Patient: Whoa...why would I do something like that?

Doctor: You don't want to lose again do you?

Patient: But a tie?

Doctor: It's not a loss.

Patient: But it's not a win either. I don't want to not lose...I want to crush her. I want her to lose all her picks by round three. I want HER to be frustrated--I want her to hate losing.

Doctor: You said it yourself...she doesn't care. Why would she ever reach that point?

Patient: Then I guess there's only one thing left to do--win the whole damn pool.

Doctor: My advice is to start drinking heavily. You can't win.

Patient: I have to go break down film. I have eight conference tournament games on my DVR and I need to get familiar with the defensive schemes if I'm going to pick upsets. Upsets are the key to winning.

Doctor: Do me a favor--send your dog next week--I need to meet a sane member of your family.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Guest Speaker = Neuman's Upset Specials

Below was posted to the comment section and I thought that despite the author's credentials (I have drank, golfed, gambled, and drank with him, not necessarily in that order, and you, sir, are no Tony Neuman), this post is worth another round of comments. Upsets? We don't need no freakin' upsets! I think the politically correct phrase is "victoriously challenged" or LOSER as Assistant Tournament Director Raap just said.

Enough by me...young Anthony makes some good points so read carefully. These might be big words for some of you.

"I wanted to share some thoughts on upsets. I follow the first couple rounds of the tourney and there seem to be three common threads to watch for with upsets:

1. When Mid-Majors get high seeds. Call this the "Gonzaga syndrome." Teams that are used to being 10's and lower seem to struggle when they're suddenly on top. I will be interesting to see how Butler and Drake handle their high seeds this year. I bet one of them loses in the first round...

2. New Big Conference Powerhouses. This is the same syndrome as above, but it happens to teams from big conferences that are suddenly higher than normal. Washington St. and Clemson look ripe for the picking here. Tennessee was rated high last year which was unusual and they didn't handle it well. It should be interesting to see how they do this year with another year under the belt.

3. Pick against the Big 10. The Big 10 tends to struggle, and I think this could be a particularly brutal year. I wouldn't be suprised if Wisconsin is the only Big 10 team to get out of the first round - and I'd bet anyone money that more than one Big 10 team won't survive through to the weekend...

Here are some first round upsets to watch for:- Winthrop vs. Washington St. Winthrop is a small conference team with tourney experience - they could get lucky and win a game or two. - Kentucky vs. Marquette. Here the major confernece team is the 11 seed vs. the mid-major team with a 6 seed. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. - Villanova vs. Clemson. Was Clemson's run in the ACC tourney a fluke? I think it might be...- W. Kentucky vs. Drake. Drake hasn't been here in awhile, can the justify their high seeding? - San Diego vs. Uconn. Uconn has struggled and I think this game will at least be close. - S. Alabama vs. Butler. Will Butler choke as a 3-seed and "Gonzaga it" in their first game?

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Mid-Major Madness

I'm doing this while I'm watching the selection show. I realize that CBS was thrown a curveball by the SEC tournament fiasco but who really thought we needed to see the replay of the 2007 championship game in its place? If ESPN didn't have so many damn networks, they would have salivated at having an extra two hours early on Selection Sunday to overanalyze the potential field of 65. I'm stunned that CBS didn't just stick Seth, Greg, and Clark on the tube to play another stupid "Jeopardy" type quiz show about which mid-major didn't deserve to make the tourney and which team should just because they were fortunate enough to play in the ACC (that's right, I'm talkin' to you Virginia Tech).

Actually Seth has been an overapologist lately for the mid-majors. I think he was so embarrassing a few years ago with his pro-"power" conference comments that someone politely said, "Seth, tone it down or hit the road"--unfortunately, now he gushes over the mid-majors. Anyone who saw his act a few years ago knows that isn't how he feels. Exhibit A of his recent behavior--he just gushed over the committee for putting in South Alabama, a bubble team after being upset by Middle Tennessee State in their conference tournament (Sun Belt for those of you scoring at home...and if you are, why are you reading an internet post??) and making them a 10 seed. Geez, Seth, there's got to be a middle ground.

Clark just praised the committee for giving Kent State a #9 seed. He just praised the committee for giving a decent conference champion a spot in the top 36 teams in the nation. Brutal. Thank God for the commercials...I need time to go jump start my brain.

Have you ever tried to write one of these things, fill in your bracket and balance your daughter as she falls over on you after she tried for the umpteenth time to sit up by herself. She can do it but she sees me typing and she wants to get a closer look.

Funny that halfway through, no mention of the lack of love for the Kelvin-less Sampsons who only notched a #8 seed. I bet Bobby Knight is cracking a smile like only he can. At least he A). never cheated and B). graduated a significant percentage of his students.

Kentucky and K-State as #11 seeds...wonder who was the last one in. And funny that the 3rd team in from the West Coast Conference, St. Mary's got a 10 seed in Kentucky's bracket. Ohhh, how the mighty have fallen. Think Wildcat fans don't have their Rick Pitino voodoo dolls in full force right now?

How does Pitt get all the way up to #4 based on their run in the Big East? It was a good run but they are not a consistent top 16 team.

Not sure I'm thrilled with Drake's #5 seed and their placement with two other conference champions plus the overrated Connecticut. I would not be shocked to see San Diego knock off UConn and I think this is a perfect mini-region to have a mid-major come out into the Sweet 16 (notice I'm not necessarily saying that's Drake either).

Baylor as a #11--I'm guessing they were in last behind K-State and Kentucky but man was it fun to watch them get fired up when they saw their name. I could swear Xavier got beat in their conference tournament and they still warrant a #3 seed? I guess I should be thankful since a lower seed could have meant Drake would need to beat them but a loss to St. Joe's who ALSO got a #11 seed should have dropped them to #4 (but since UConn lost early in their tournament to a weak W. Virginia team, the committee didn't leave themselves a lot of choices).

What's missing? Illinois State who was a lock according to Lunardi in Bracketology on ESPN.com but I told you last weekend that you can't lose the conference final by 30 in a mid-major conference

Already tired of the references to the "next George Mason", this one by the always inept Billy Packer. Instead of referencing the past, how about just talking about the matchups? But I will say that George Mason's run did go a long way to changing the major/mid-major paradigm with the William Packers and Seth Davises of the world. I just don't like it when a cliche is invented and worn out within one offseason of its invention.

I also noticed Notre Dame's reaction was a lot more boisterous than last year. Remember last year, I told you I noticed how quiet they were when they were announced compared to Winthrop's reaction and Winthrop already knew they were in. Sure enough #11 Winthrop beats Notre Dame in the first round. Didn't really notice anything this year other than Georgia's coach seemed pretty pissed about getting the #14 seed as the SEC conference champion. Hey coach--be thankful you're even in. Granted, you did the yeoman's effort in winning two games in one day (first time in any conference tournament that has ever happened) and then beating Arkansas the next day after the Razorbacks had upset Vandy and Tennessee in the tournament. But you would not be in the tournament without the conference title so you're at least behind the #11 seeds who were the last ones in. 14 might be low but tough. Enjoy your beating by the Xmen.

Quick run to change Izzy--I get back and the first comparison on ESPN Bracketology is Arizona/Arizona State. I'm already tired of it. Billy Packer asked Tom O'Connor, the committee chair, why the #1 rated RPI conference only sent so few teams and the #5 RPI conference sent in 7 teams. Tom's answers was perfect. He said the RPI was a "data point." Just one other piece of a large puzzle the committee puts together to determine a team's worthiness in the field of 65. Everyone who complains about not making it in, usually only has one data point to defend their argument and that's all they focus on. Then they go out in the first round of the NIT because they are too shell-shocked about missing the opportunity to go in the first round of the NCAA.

Expand the tournament? Seth Greenberg, the Va Tech coach, just lobbied for expanding the tournament so more kids could get a chance for that "one shining moment." Huh? The biggest problem with college sports right now is that in sports like football and hockey, too many people make the postseason. A bowl game in football doesn't mean anything any longer because 6-6 and 7- 5 teams are getting in. It's now become ok to be average. I remember when Iowa used to go 8-3 and consider themselves fortunate to be in the Freedom Bowl. It was a big deal to get a bowl bid. Now, all you have to do is hire Glen Mason and go 7-5 with a win over a NCAA Division II team (or is the Playoff division where BCS is a dirty word, and rightfully so). If a team really deserves to be in, they will have a strong, complete resume and there will be no question. The bubble teams shouldn't even be arguing this--if they get in, congrats, you got lucky. If you don't, you didn't do enough. Simply put--there is no bias on the committee--it's the hardest job in the country (other than Rick Majerus' fitness coach and Lindsay Lohan's sponsor) and they do the best with the myriad statistics they have at their disposal.

Let me end with this, Vitale just said that if we expanded to 128, we'd be sitting on Selection Sunday night arguing about 129, 130, etc. Trust me, I don't want to see a 16-16 Iowa team in a field of 128. If you ask me, I'd be for contracting the field to...

64 teams...I still don't get the play-in game.

Peace,
Reg