Monday, March 17, 2008

Guest Speaker = Neuman's Upset Specials

Below was posted to the comment section and I thought that despite the author's credentials (I have drank, golfed, gambled, and drank with him, not necessarily in that order, and you, sir, are no Tony Neuman), this post is worth another round of comments. Upsets? We don't need no freakin' upsets! I think the politically correct phrase is "victoriously challenged" or LOSER as Assistant Tournament Director Raap just said.

Enough by me...young Anthony makes some good points so read carefully. These might be big words for some of you.

"I wanted to share some thoughts on upsets. I follow the first couple rounds of the tourney and there seem to be three common threads to watch for with upsets:

1. When Mid-Majors get high seeds. Call this the "Gonzaga syndrome." Teams that are used to being 10's and lower seem to struggle when they're suddenly on top. I will be interesting to see how Butler and Drake handle their high seeds this year. I bet one of them loses in the first round...

2. New Big Conference Powerhouses. This is the same syndrome as above, but it happens to teams from big conferences that are suddenly higher than normal. Washington St. and Clemson look ripe for the picking here. Tennessee was rated high last year which was unusual and they didn't handle it well. It should be interesting to see how they do this year with another year under the belt.

3. Pick against the Big 10. The Big 10 tends to struggle, and I think this could be a particularly brutal year. I wouldn't be suprised if Wisconsin is the only Big 10 team to get out of the first round - and I'd bet anyone money that more than one Big 10 team won't survive through to the weekend...

Here are some first round upsets to watch for:- Winthrop vs. Washington St. Winthrop is a small conference team with tourney experience - they could get lucky and win a game or two. - Kentucky vs. Marquette. Here the major confernece team is the 11 seed vs. the mid-major team with a 6 seed. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. - Villanova vs. Clemson. Was Clemson's run in the ACC tourney a fluke? I think it might be...- W. Kentucky vs. Drake. Drake hasn't been here in awhile, can the justify their high seeding? - San Diego vs. Uconn. Uconn has struggled and I think this game will at least be close. - S. Alabama vs. Butler. Will Butler choke as a 3-seed and "Gonzaga it" in their first game?

185 comments:

Anonymous said...

I must be going senile or something because I actually agree with the older bro on most of his takes. But do not worry, in true brotherly fashion, I think that he is wrong with at least one thought. Clemson is real. Though the ACC was down this year, they are right behind UNC and Duke and may make a nice little run. I read through his little blog three times and really wanted to disagree with him on more things. I hate it when brothers think alike.

Am I the only that refuses to put Duke in the Final Four? It really has no "great analytical mind" basis. It is purely based on the fact that I don't like Duke. Ever since our beloved Twolves drafted Christian Laettner and we were forced to listen to him whine for too many years, I have been permanently tainted.

Just one note to our tournament director. Why reward a point for the play in game? Does anyone actually care who wins this game? Though, if I make the money or edge out a fellow brother by one point, I will be eating my own words thanks to the heroics of Mt. St. Mary's.

I never thought I would admit this, but I can sympathize with our tournament director. I encouraged the gal friend to complete a free bracket on ESPN last year and she finished ahead of me. Damn. I still have some dignity. I think. Don't I?

Reg said...

No, no dignity...it is truly one of the inexplicable occurrences in today's society that individuals who have little or no interest in college basketball can still make us look like a bunch of first graders when picking games.

But I think the first graders would do even better than our womenfolk.

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